Commodity Futures

Commodity Spread Trading Built Around a Repeatable Process

Trade carefully selected commodity futures spreads using historical seasonal research, current market structure, and disciplined portfolio construction. Each opportunity is evaluated for direction, timing, contract structure, liquidity, and risk before it reaches the watch list. Positions are then monitored as part of the overall portfolio until the trade objective or planned exit is reached.

See how the process works
Five-step process: Research Opportunities, Evaluate Market Structure, Build the Spread, Construct the Portfolio, Monitor and Exit

Begin With Historical Seasonal Research

The Smart Spreads process begins with an extensive historical database of commodity spread combinations. Each opportunity is evaluated across multiple years to determine whether the seasonal tendency has been sufficiently consistent, profitable, and repeatable to merit further consideration.

From historical database to focused watch list: liquidity and history screens, performance and risk tests, structured research, focused watch list

Evaluate Current Market Structure

A strong historical pattern is only the starting point. Each candidate is evaluated against current market conditions, including recent price direction, entry timing, front-month behavior, forward-curve structure, volatility, and the relationship among the individual spread legs.

Historical patterns must fit today's market: evaluating direction, timing, spread structure, and current opportunity confirmation

Build the Spread

Smart Spreads may use calendar spreads, butterfly spreads, or four-leg spreads depending on the opportunity. Contract months and spread structure are selected to capture the seasonal tendency while controlling volatility, margin requirements, liquidity, and exposure to outright commodity prices.

Choose the structure that best expresses the opportunity: calendar spread, butterfly spread, or four-legged spread

Construct a Diversified Portfolio

Portfolio construction considers more than the number of markets being traded. Positions are evaluated by commodity group, direction, spread structure, contract months, volatility, entry timing, and the economic forces likely to affect them. The objective is to prevent several apparently different trades from creating the same underlying exposure.

Diversification beyond commodity names: different trade names can create the same underlying exposure

Monitor the Portfolio

Positions are monitored individually and as part of the complete portfolio. Current price action, seasonal progress, remaining profit potential, drawdown, correlation, and portfolio exposure are reviewed as trades develop. Positions may be held toward their planned exit, closed early when the opportunity has changed, or replaced with a later-dated spread offering a stronger risk-and-reward profile.

Evaluate each position within the whole portfolio: monitor, compare, decide to hold, exit, or roll forward

What Subscribers Actually Receive

Smart Spreads provides the historical research, current-market analysis, and portfolio context needed to evaluate seasonal commodity spread opportunities each week.

Your Weekly Smart Spreads Research: focused watch list, historical research, spread details, market structure, and portfolio updates
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TRADING FUTURES INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. THERE ARE NO GUARANTEES OF PROFIT NO MATTER WHO IS MANAGING YOUR ACCOUNT.